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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a summit obstructed from the top if his government led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.